On the 3rd, incidental to his offering CIANO congratulations for his recovery from illness, I had ANDO[a] confer with ANFUUZO[b]. ANDO asked him what impression he had received of the Eastern Front at the time of the recent meeting of MUSSOLINI and HITLER. His reply was this: "I was on the Ukraine front for only three days. The war on that front is progressing very well. Both the German and the Italian Armies were in good spirits and in perfect cooperation with each other. All along the line, the Russians put up a stiff resistance. However, we are sure of victory. The Russian Army has already lost 8,000 planes. It is estimated that there are but 2,000 or 3,000 left. The quality of the Russian planes has already greatly deteriorated, judging from the discarded planes. At present, the German Army is progressing in the

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THE "MAGIC" BACKGROUND OF PEARL HARBOR

direction of Harikofu[c]. I believe the German Army will reach Caucasus by the end of this week. The Volga region is the last defense line in European Russia, and by the time the German Army reaches that line, the Russian Army will suffer much damage, and as a result, its power of resistance will be out of the question."

ANDO then, remarking that he understood the two leaders to have discussed political questions as well as the question of food supply, asked what were the main points of the discussion. ANFUUZO's reply was that they had talked about their fighting until they won. They had also discussed the general question of justice in that they agreed to overthrow the Bolsheviks and drive the Anglo-Saxons out of Europe.

ANDO said he had heard rumors to the effect that a conference of European nations will be called in connection with the much-talked-of question of the new order and asked if the leaders had discussed this question as well. ANFUUZO replied that he had heard nothing about it and that he thought there was no need of such a conference. Incidentally, ANFUUZO inquired about conditions in Japan, and, I understand, ANDO gave him a suitable explanation.

[a] Counselor at Japanese Embassy in Rome.
[b] Probably Director of the Maritime Commission.
[c] Kana spelling.

Trans. 9-6-41

Our recent negotiations with the United States have put a bad taste in the mouths of the people of this country. Our attitude toward the Tripartite Alliance appears to them to be faithless. Recently the newspapers have been growing more critical in tone where we Japanese are concerned. Official comment, too, has been none too complimentary. As for Italy's attitude toward the recent celebration of the first anniversary of the conclusion of the Japanese-German-Italian Tripartite Alliance, its coolness reflects the attitude of the whole Italian people. I mean to say:

1. The Propaganda Department told the press to confine itself to a mere mention of the present anniversary and to turn its attention mainly to other things, refraining from discussion of the bearing of this alliance upon the present international situation.

2. The ceremonies attendant upon this anniversary were carried out half-heartedly or even less by the Italians. It would even seem that this was done to spite Japan and Germany. At Villa Madama there was a reception held for CIANO, but certainly no festivities worth mentioning took place. At a reception held for the press, at first the German and Italian flags only were hanging in the hall. A Japanese reporter mentioned this, and then they pulled them all down.

3. When asked about felicitations and ceremonies, the Propaganda Department always replied that this was not a good time to be ostentatious.

Furthermore, the other day PRUNAS told ANDO that word had been received from Ambassador INDELLI that when he inquired of the Japanese Foreign Office officials concerning the negotiations between Japan and the United States, they were very reserved and

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uncommunicative, showing that their erstwhile fervor for the Axis was not as glowing as in days gone by.

All this shows how dissatisfied the Italian people are. All I can say is that the exercises held in Tokyo on the 27th, and the Minister's speech, together with the messages from the Premier and Minister, saved the situation perhaps to some extent.

Trans. 10-2-41

In 2 parts complete.

Re my #627[a].

Today, the 1st, Ando had an interview with AREKISANDORINI, at which time AREKISANDORINI said as far as the Italian people were concerned the Tripartite Pact was not merely an arrangement whereby the contracting parties could pursue their material benefits. It has a far higher ideal which is expressed in the daily lives of the people themselves and it is the earnest desire of the Italian Government to foster this confidence of the people toward the above pact. However, it has come about lately that a certain section of public opinion is beginning to entertain certain misgivings toward the Japanese attitude and so in the future it will require particular pains to guide public opinion. Again even in diplomatic circles the trend of Japanese-American negotiations, etc., is not well understood and his position, as one who is supposed to be well versed in Japanese problems, of not being able to answer questions put to him by government authorities, is extremely unfortunate from the standpoint of guiding public opinion. He thought he understood the Japanese position fairly well and he explained that the Japanese attitude did not necessarily imply a withdrawal from the Axis. However, he would consider it a great favor if he could be given clearly to understand just what the position of Japan is at the present time. Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire  To this Ando replied that in regard to recent Japanese-American negotiations even the Ambassador himself didn't firmly believe that there is no change in Japan's fundamental policy of adherence to the Tripartite Pact and also we believe that Japanese-American relations are being conducted along the line and we are harboring no doubts and it is unthinkable that even if the talks take definite shape that this could result in any harm to the Axis powers. As for my personal impression, I believe that it is only natural that there should be many economists and others who, from the standpoint of Japanese economy, desire to see Japanese-American economy maintained on its ordinary basis. However, in view of the international political situation that exists today, it will be impossible to revive the regular Japanese-American economic relations through such persons and so in order to impress upon them the fact that it is of prime importance now for Japan to devote herself wholeheartedly and without reserve to the establishment of the Greater East Asia Prosperity program, it is necessary that Japan, in view of the present internal political situation, once more exhaust peaceful means in order to try to come to an understanding with the United States. I think that in case the government should be forced to make some important move that this political phenomena will be particularly required in order to obtain national unity.

Again Japan has for the past four years expended almost all of her efforts to seek a solution of the China incident and if circumstances should require military action in the north or in the south it goes without saying that Japan would steel herself for an all out war and make the necessary preparations. To do otherwise, i.e., to rush into war without preparations,

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THE "MAGIC" BACKGROUND OF PEARL HARBOR

would be foolhardy and there is danger that Japan would be faced with the same difficulties that you have previously told me that Italy was faced with when she was suddenly embroiled in the war without opportunity to complete her military preparations.   http://ljsheehan.livejournal.com  I think it is necessary for you to view Japan's present attitude in the light of the above points.

To this "A" replied that he had taken the same view and had made the same explanation to the authorities and that he had full confidence in Japan's attitude.

[a] See III, 941.

Trans. 10-7-41

(Report of secondary importance.)

We have reports from the Vatican to the effect that MYRON TAYLOR visited the Vatican the other day and sounded out the Pope on the possibilities of negotiations with Soviet Russia for the restoration of the Catholic Church, declaring that this was a matter of grave significance to England and the United States in the pursuit of their policies. He did his best to convince the Pontiff, who replied, however, that he might be willing to negotiate for the revival of the Catholic faith in territories occupied by the German and Allied forces, but as for the Soviet Government, he could never trust them on religious matters. "No," he said, "As a matter of fact, negotiations are quite out of the question." As His Holiness seemed disinclined to listen, TITTOMAN[a] also went to see him and asked if he would attempt these negotiations in case England and the United States could give him some assurances, but he said, "No."

[a] Commercial Attache of the American Embassy in Rome; accredited to the Vatican.

Trans. 10-10-41

The allowance for living expenses for the Japanese exchange students and Humbolt scholarship students resident in Germany is not sufficient and so many are making up the deficit by working on the side. (See my #546[a].)

However, in view of the retrenchment of business of firms connected with Japan, wholesome employment is becoming scarce and the pursuit of the study of military subjects is attended with various difficulties, hence I am urging all unless there is some special reason for doing otherwise, to return to Japan at this time. Incidentally if there are any students now planning to come to Germany on the evacuee ship please arrange to stop them. If there are any who think they must come, whether or no, they will have to estimate their living expenses at the very minimum of 500 marks per month and before they sail from Japan they should make

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arrangements for permission for having the difference between this figure and their scholarship remitted to them from Japan each month.

[a] Not available.

Trans. 10-3-41

Re your message #900[a].

The International Students Association have replied that they will put no objection in the way of TSUNODA's permit to return to Japan.

[a] Not available.

Trans. 10-18-41

Re your message #262[a] (Your message to Berlin #851)

TSUNODA and SHIMIZU have decided to return home on the next evacuation steamer. TSUNODA's return fare will be paid by the Far Eastern Association. We are now negotiating with the-----tsuka Association to guarantee SHIMIZU's passage home.

[a] See III, 945.

Trans. 10-18-41

Re your #626[a].

There are too the considerations outlined in wires #1123[b] and #1172[c] from Germany to this Minister. The competent authorities here have adopted the policy of delaying the dispatch of students to Europe on vessels for evacuation purposes. For this reason these measures have been taken.  Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire    It was in compliance with the wishes of the Far Eastern Association authorities that we are sending students to Italy alone at the present time.-------------------------

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THE "MAGIC" BACKGROUND OF PEARL HARBOR

There is also the matter of the large number of students----------.

I think that it might be very difficult to control this. We would like to arrange matters in accordance with the general policy outlined above. Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire  However, after you have conferred with Ambassador OSHIMA please wire me if there is any special reason why Japanese students should be invited.

[a] See III, 946.
[b] Not available.
[c] See III, 944.

Trans. 10-17-41

Re your #279[a].

Continuing to have students study abroad is desirable. However, I can see no reason why we should send them only to Italy at such a time as this. I am wiring you this immediately because I do not see any use in discussing it with Ambassador OSHIMA.

[a] See III, 947.

Trans. 10-10-41

Rome to Tokyo #645.
In 2 parts complete.

On the 8th, I had an interview with Gayda at which time he expressed his views without reserve as follows:

1. Japanese-American negotiations give us the impression that Japan is pursuing her individualistic ends and is not attempting to act in concert with the Axis. On the other hand these negotiations create the impression that Japan is not able to wage war against England and America and that she is seeking to secure peace in the Orient as a result of which America will be enabled to participate in the war today. Even though Japan does not desire to engage in hostilities, I believe that it is necessary for her to adopt a belligerent attitude in order to exercise a restraining influence on America. It is hardly necessary to state that President Roosevelt desires to put America into the war. I believe that Japan is full aware of his purpose, i.e., first to crush Italy and Germany and then to crush Japan. If Japan does not join in the war and if by some chance Britain and America win this world war, they will most certainly unite against Japan after the war is over. Again, in case Germany and Italy come off victorious in this war, it is not impossible that Germany might bring pressure to bear on Japan by means of certain economic advantages enjoyed in China, or Germany might even cooperate with England and America for the purpose of oppressing Japan economically.

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However, if Japan joins the war now, victory is certain and Japan will be able to obtain all she desires in the Orient. But, if Japan fails to fight now, no matter which side wins the loss to be sustained by Japan will be great.

2. It will be sufficient if Japan today instead of attacking Russia, whose fate is already sealed, will use her submarines to threaten the lines of British transportation which are so vital a problem to Britain's existence. By so doing, Japan will cause America to lose confidence in Britain's ability to win and so America will not join the war. Also transportation to Britain will eventually become impossible and Britain will be forced to submission and the war will be over in about six months.

3. I think that after the conclusion of the first phase of the Soviet war, Germany will turn her attention to the destruction of the British Empire by sending another part through Turkey to threaten Syria, Palestine, and Egypt.

4. The economic situation within Italy itself is become more and more acute; however, this situation has been occasioned largely by the necessity of making up for the dearth of commodities in Greece, Croatia, and Montenegro, and will not become any worse than it is at present. Naturally, a certain portion of the people will be discontented, but the populace, in general, are cognizant of the situation, and I do not believe that there will be any general uneasiness within the country. As far as Italy is concerned, she is taking the position that there can be no thought of peace until an all out victory is obtained, and so the war will have to continue until England is forced to submission, etc.

In the above can be seen reflective the subjective viewpoint and desires of an Italy that has long been suffering the pressure of the British fleet, however, it may be of some value for your consideration.

Relayed to Berlin and Washington.

Trans. 10-11-41

Re my #629[a].

This conferment of decorations may have a good influence on the attitude of official circles in this country toward Japan. This attitude has noticeably cooled because of the Japanese- American negotiations. This step is dictated by policy, so please give it consideration and wire immediately.

[a] Not available.

Trans. 11-7-41

It is my urgent desire and recommendation that GUIDO ROCCO, Chief of the Foreign Newspaper Division of the Italian Propaganda Office, who two years ago as Minister was bestowed with the 2nd Order of the Sacred Treasure, be advanced to the 1st Order.

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THE "MAGIC" BACKGROUND OF PEARL HARBOR

The original decoration was bestowed on account of his many and consistent services to MATSUOKA and other Japanese at the time of the formation of the 3-Power Pact, and since then he has spared no efforts in promoting our friendship with Italy and in rendering many notable services.

He now holds the Italian San Mortiz 2nd class decoration and the Order of the Crown D' Italy. If this recommendation is approved, will you please send the desired decoration by the Asama Maru.

Trans. 10-14-41

Re my #463[a].

The following is a summation of the economic situation within this country since I wrote you in my caption message:

1. Though figures covering the grain harvest for this year have not been published, in view of the fine weather, it seems that there will be, comparatively speaking at least, a much higher yield than last year. However, as I told you in my #624[b], because of the increased need for supplying the occupied areas outside of Italy, it has made extremely difficult the problem of supply for consumption within the country. During the latter part of last month, prices and the variety of food on menus in restaurants were restricted. On top of this, beginning this month, bread and potatoes have been put on a rationing system (for the time being 1.6 kilos). Shortly milk, eggs, and cheese will come under the application of this same system. However, because the quantity available is extremely limited, it is expected that the lower classes will give evidence of some dissatisfaction. http://ljsheehan.livejournal.com

2. While commodity prices on the surface have been left more or less alone since I wrote my caption message, prices in speculative markets have risen markedly. Astonishing as it may seem, olive oil is understood to have increased 13 times in price. Furthermore, with regard to goods other than foodstuffs, there are evidences of an indisposition to sell and a desire to accumulate by buying. Since the 12th of last month, an emergency decree was promulgated which forbade competition in purchasing on the outside and set forth a requirement that for purchases of more than 20 lira, identification cards issued by the Italian government would have to be presented. In addition to that, on the 30th day of the same month the sale of woolen goods, shoes and other clothing was absolutely forbidden for a two-week period.  Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire  I think that they are preparing for the institution of a (point system?). In addition to that, because it is extremely difficult to secure coal for heating purposes and lumber, the Government will generally control these commodities within the country, as well as in the various countries of Europe under their control in order to restrict their use. http://ljsheehan.livejournal.com

3. Economic circles generally are attempting to combat the abnormal business conditions concerning which I told you in my caption message. Because of the shortage of raw materials, non-defense industries are putting up no objections to radical curtailment of operations. Though defense industries get preferential treatment in the supply of steel and coal, as a result of the shortage of rolling stock and engines, Germany, which is the only nation supplying the country with this item cannot ship more than 1,000,000 tons per month into Italy. The importation of iron and petroleum in comparison with pre-war days is extremely limited. Recently great numbers of skilled workers have been enticed into Germany. Commercial circles because of the virtual standstill of sales have stopped making payments

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on promissory notes. Comparatively speaking, those who are doing the best business are the construction engineers.

4. As the war lengthens, the tendency to use ersatz is becoming more and more noticeable. The price of stocks has soared considerably. Surprisingly enough, in spite of the fact that average dividends have been fixed at 3.3%, it has not deterred investments in stocks. In regard to the advances in prices of stocks, as a result of tax levies since July 15th ranging from 10 to 50% and the application of registration and acquisition taxes, industrial stocks are said to have dropped off 20 or 30% (please refer to my #624[b]). Furthermore, since the 15th of last month, 5 % National treasury notes maturing in 1950 were put on sale on a monthly installment basis. As a result of the efforts of the authorities, considerable success has been realized. It is understood that more than 20,200,000,000 lira have been subscribed.

[a] Not available.
[b] Not available.

Trans. 10-17-41